Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Thanks Builders...

I would like to say a thank you to the builders who decided to start drilling next door at 9:30am.

Due to Kvitova bottling the big game and not turning up against Zvonareva I had resigned to have a losing day today despite clawing a little bit back on Murray.

I was woken up by the drilling and after lying in bed for about 20 mins I realised I wasn't going to get back to sleep so got up to see Ferrer/Nadal from early in the second set. I jumped aboard the Ferrer train as it was clear Nadal couldn't move 100% and what was even better was the drilling stopped about 5 mins after I got up!

A lovely finish to the day and finishing with a little green made me happy. I think tonight I will get involved in play with the WTA matches. I think Li can beat Woz but ther will be a few flip flops in the match so will wait to get involved.

Tuesday, 25 January 2011

Aus Open Quarter Finals...

I had a nicer green on Li but got involved again in the second set, thinking Petkovic would take the set but Li broke back again and I managed to scrape a little green still.

Joker went out to 1.4 when a set up and a break down which was a massive over reaction to his contacts problem. I took some of that and greened out at low odds again. I didn't want to lay at low odds with him as he has been playing so well that I couldn't be confident he would drift.

I wanted to lay Woz as I thought she was too short at 1.17 against Schiavone, despite Schiavone playing the massive match a couple of days earlier I thought she could still cause problems and break Woz's serve. I ended up sleeping though after watching most of Fed which I also didn't get involved in. I was looking to maybe back Fed should his price rise but he was class and I certainly wasn't going to lay him when ahead the way he was playing.

I think Vera will be a lay tonight, I can see her winning but Kvitova has a good chance to cause some problems and she will probably trade higher. Murray I will back in play if he drifts and I will watch A.Rad, possibly laying Clijsters pre match and look to trade.

Monday, 24 January 2011

Aus Open Monday Morning...

A profitable day which should have been so much better. I was watching and concentrating on the Sod match so much I forgot to green out on Pennetta. Sod was duly delivering a nice win but I need to keep an eye on all matches.

Two other little trades on the WTA matches, Zvonareva I had a little back of when a break down in the first set, I didn't think she would lose and would break back not long after. A.Rad I let run a bit longer and should have greened out at the end of the first set for a nice profit, instead Peng broke back and leveled. A.Rad got the break in the deciding set and that was me done for the night.

I was hoping Clijsters lost the first set tie break this morning as she would have been value to back but she won so I didn't get involved in this match.

Sunday, 23 January 2011

Aus Open Sunday Morning...

No early match trading as I was drinking last night but did get up for football an hour early and had two good trades. First was a quick one in the Kuz match, this was 5-5 or 6-6 I think and started with laying Kuz when she had 0-30 on Schiavone's serve, Schia came back to hold and it was a quick green. I watched the rest and wanted to get involved again but I knew as soon as I laid someone who broke you could almost guarantee that they would have held to win so I just watched and didn't re-enter the market.

The other was a lay of Sharapova, she was far too short and her serve was going to be under massive pressure and when Petkovic started putting heavy ground strokes in to the corners this would put Masha under even more pressure to get first serves in. This was more 50/50 and I would have probably even made Petkovic favourite.

Sharapova was getting her arse kicked from the start and I was going to let it run the whole way but when Petkovic was broken serving for the match I greened out at around 1.05 as I had to leave to play football then.

All in all another good day, I'm happy with how it's going in recent days.

Saturday, 22 January 2011

Aus Open Saturday Morning...

Quick post this evening as I've been drinking after winning at football today...

A good day, only the one loss and that could have been a big win. I laid Stosur and was about to let the lay run in the tie break for a bigger win, I greened out and then backed Stosur at 3.5 as this was too high playing at home a set down.

When Stosur had break points near the end of the second set I went back to think about the first set where being brave enough to let it run would have been a much bigger green so this time I said I would let it run.

I did and Kvitova came back to hold and then broke Stosur to love. I had to take a loss and I didn't mind too much, some time a match like that will result in a nice green and that was also the only loss of the day. I was just sat there laughing to myself as I redded out after the way it went.

Friday, 21 January 2011

Aus Open Day 5...

Some more profit but the two big losses were very annoying. I laid Almagro and Wawrinka when a set up but as soon as I done that (like Stepanek the other day) their opponents just went down pathetically. I didn't red out at first as it's a 5 set match but it's the wrong decision for me to lay after 1 set in ATP, I just can't get it right.

WTA was a much better night and I always seem to do better with that. Sevastova was a fantastic value at 1.75 and I didn't read anyone that was on Manesieva. The last few times I have laid Sharapova she has gone on to win and cost me money and last night I didn't think Goerges had the game either physically or mentally to outdo her in a Slam so I backed her from the off.

She broke early but I was hoping for her to consolidate her break before greening but she was broken back. I topped up a little when she lost the first set and greened out after Masha broke her early in the decider.

I also laid Henin and took the early green after Kuz broke her and I said the other day I think Kuz could be the surprise package this year and go quite far in what is a very open Slam.

I will be trading less matches over the next two days as I play football Saturday's and Sunday's so need to get some sleep through the night.

Thursday, 20 January 2011

Aus Open Day 4...

I didn't enjoy last night very much despite ending in profit. It was a night littered with mistakes and bad decisions and I think I was lucky to end up green.

I failed to research lots of the matches properly and made stupid decisions like backing Llodra, Jankovic, laying Petrova just after she was broken as I opened the market late.

Then there were the ones like laying Cornet after winning the first set only to see here win 6-1, laying Stepanek just before a complete breakdown and he feebly lost from there on.

I think because matches are 5 sets I have not been redding out so tonight I think I will only get involved in play or if I do get involved from the start make sure I research properly before betting.

Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Aus Open Day 3...

A decent day in my first full night choosing matches instead of grabbing whatever matches I could at the start and end of the day.

The losses I can't complain about, on second thoughts I may have done them differently but laying Sharapova nearly paid off as she was gifting break points to Razzano but she just couldn't take one.

Laying Berdych against Kohl could have been the one I would have done differently but I was just hoping for a 0-30 or 15-40 to get a quick green but it wasn't to be.

Bartoli was broken to love as soon as I laid her and was then bageled. The stats looked pretty even so after the first break in the final set I thought she was worth a back. I hadn't been watching but did read (after betting) that she was carrying an injury but how many times have we seen her "injured" only to win with ease in the end?

Best result was the lay of Wickmayer which I ended up letting run as she was never going to win that match. Sevastova was getting everything back and even short balls Wick was putting in the net. If Wick did get the ball back then Sevastova was just putting it in the corners and Wick had no answer to it.

Happy with my man Nishikori too, like I said before I am a big fan of his and 1.5 on Mayer was far too short for a 5 set match so had a nice green there too.

Robredo was my tipping comp pick and I thought he would have too much for Fish overall so that was not a bad green to pick up and the others like Petkovic and Tipsa were quick in and out trades. Petkovic lost the first set 6-2 so could have waited longer but I was off to bed and she was getting deuce on Keo's serve early on so thought it would safer to green out and leave it.

Looking forward to tonight now, with plenty more matches to watch and hopefully trade on. Good luck everyone!

Tuesday, 18 January 2011

Tonights Setup...

Thought I would post a screen shot of my set up as I trade this evening. I am not getting involved in more than three matches at a time otherwise it's too hard to keep track of.

I am watching one on tv, one on the scoreboard and one on bf video usually. As you can see I started with a back of Robredo and lays of Mayer and Kulikova. Kulikova I had just greened out on as Cheepers took the first set, I don't care what anyone says but 1.3 on a WTA players ranked lower than 100 is crazy no matter who they are playing.

I am hoping for Robredo to pull it back a little and taking some green but I can see this going 5 sets against Fish. Nishikori is looking decent enough against Mayer who is playing terribly so I will be watching this and continuing to let it run and get a bigger green as possible.

Anyway, back to it, good luck with your bets tonight everyone!

Aus Open Day 2...

A loss today but could have been a green day. I backed Seppi when he lost the first set as I didn't think Clement would walk it but he started terribly in the second set and when he went a double break down at 0-3 I redded out and took the hit. I was off to bed not long after and didn't want to leave it running. It was annoying to wake up and see he came back from two sets down to win but that's how this game goes sometimes.

With Ivanovic I backed her at 2.1ish, at 4-5 I think as I thought this would come down to nerves and Makarova has choked before. She really had my nerves going as she held from 0-40 not once but twice.

When the market goes against me then back to level, against me then back to level again I have to be getting out at level from now on, or even a small loss. I was hoping for a 0-30 on Makarova's serve towards the end and I suppose it was a bit of greed that kept me in the market.

Squeaky ended up throwing it away and this loss will hit her hard after rebuilding her confidence over the last few months of last season.

With the Bandy match I woke up and expected all the tennis to be finished for the day but it was 4-3 final set so watch a couple of games and looked at the stats to see Hewitt had had around 27 break points but only taken 5 of them (I think).

I laid Bandy when serving for the match @ 5-4 as with that many break points over the match there was a very good chance of Hewitt getting more and 1.28 was too short for me, this wasn't 30-0. Hewitt duly broke and I got a quick green and left the market and unfortunately couldn't stay around for the end of the match as I had things to do.

That win made it a bit better but still a loss which isn't good but as long as I learn something then I don't mind them too often. Today I learnt it will be better for me to get out of a market that goes against me and back to level, against me and back to level instead of being patient and waiting for a greening opportunity it's sometimes the safest option.

I am now off of work for the rest of the AO so should be able to get plenty more trading done most days. Let's hope for some nice wins!

Monday, 17 January 2011

Aus Open Day 1...

I managed to get involved in a few matches this morning and ended the day with a profit so I'm happy. I started with a lay of both Dokic and Simon. Dokic was @ 1.03 and a break up in the second set and she is always at risk from self imploding and messing up any lead she has, even with the crowd behind her.

She went on to win so the hit is taken on that match. The Simon/Lu match I put a lay in on Simon @ around 1.28ish, when Lu was serving at 5-6 first set to reach a tie break. He got the tie break and won the set pushing Simon out 1.9ish, maybe above evens.

I traded out and then backed Simon as he has been in good form recently. When he broke I greened out and didn't get involved again, Simon went on to win of course.

Henin was a lay in my book just after seeing Mirza serve the first game, she seemed to hitting well and Henin usually struggles with a few service games. I was in and out, in and out of this match, trying to get to used to the Geeks Toy a bit more and when Henin broke and was then serving for the first set I was about to red out but I currently had around £16 red on Henin and £188 green on Mirza and redding out would leave me around £13 red on both so decided to let it run and take the hit if need be.

I decided to get involved with the Groth/Wickmayer match and started with a back of Groth, she has been playing well and with the crowd behind her I thought she could give Wickmayer some trouble. After Wickmayer won the first set I did actually top up a tiny bit as Wick drops a set on many occasions.

Wick broke again and I should have redded out but just had a feeling Groth would not lose in two easy sets at home. When Groth broke to make it 2-2 second set she had the momentum so a tiny little top up again and then thankfully she went on to lead 5-2 where I then greened out just in case.

On my TV I then saw Mirza had won the first set so I was glad I let that run a little longer and went all green on that ready to head off to bed. I could have ended up with very little green as I seriously considered redding out on both Groth and Henin but patience paid off here, if it wasn't WTA I probably would have gone red but in the end a good morning.

I have a few things to do tomorrow afternoon so not sure how much time I will have first thing to trade as I need to get some sleep before being up at 1pm. I'll try and find a quick opportunity on an in-play game but it all depends how the matches are going.

Sunday, 16 January 2011

It's almost time...

It's almost time for the AO to kick off. I should be able to catch a few morning matches when I come home from work and from Tuesday night onwards I am off for the rest of the Slam so will have plenty of time to trade lot's of matches I hope.

I have withdrawn £180 of the profit as I am now heading to Prague for a friends stag do in March so I think that's a nice thing to get from the profit so far this year. I have never been there so looking forward to it!

I am also using the Geeks Toy to try some trading now so will see how that goes. I had tried it before but didn't look into it too much and didn't realise it had the ladder interface which I used to use on a different software. I will be giving the ladder interface a go with the greening up facilities so will try and post a few screen shots of that but it will probably be more of the days total from Betfair.

Friday, 14 January 2011

Peng v Mattek Sands - Hobart...

What a crazy match so far. I started by backing Mattek Sands after two service games. She was 2.1, got broken and went to 2.5 then broke immediately back and someone left 2.3 up there so I took that.

She was then broken again and I topped up a little @ 3.05. Carnage ensued as Mattek was broken 5 times in her 6 service games. Peng was getting broken too but she won the first set and I laid a little of Peng @ 1.25. I needed Peng to reach 1.55 to get a minimal green and Mattek has turned it around as I type and has just taken the second set 6-1. I greened out @ 1.85 at around 4-1 second set and am glad I got out of this car crash alive! ha ha

Thursday, 13 January 2011

The Last 7 Days...

The last 7 days have brought a good amount of profit from the size of the bank and a good strike rate too.

I have misjudged a couple and a couple just been wrong about but most of the time I have made pretty good choices. I think one thing I can improve on is having faith in players I am a fan of (Nishikori). Instead of continually thinking they will pull it back when a trade goes against me I need to realise that they are losing and get out of the trade earlier if I can.

I'm happy overall so far though seeing as I haven't been trading since early last year I think it was and I am certainly enjoying this more now that I have to watch the tennis and keep up with the form and news etc rather than just do the bets and check the results with no interest in what is actually happening.

Looking forward to the AO now, it's almost here and we should see some great matches like in previous years.

Bartoli v Zakopalova - Hobart...

I had a feeling Bartoli may have tanked this so had to start with a lay when I saw her at a crazily low 1.28! It seemed to me like she was trying everything to lose this at times but then also going on the attack at times (albeit a lot rarer).

Zakopalova seemed to be able to win every rally from the baseline and when she wasn't making errors she won 14 points in a row to break Bartoli when she was 40-0 on her serve, then held to love and then broke Bartoli to love.

I chose to green just in case she did wake up and decide to play but very happy with the end result. No more trading this morning for me, it's time for bed after working all night!

Kerber v Sands - Hobart...

Little interest lay @ 1.02 to see if Kerber could pull a game or two back, just whilst Bartoli is on to the side. She was broken again so got out and will just watch Bartoli (Kerber has 2 BP's again now though as I write!).

Giraldo v Bellucci - Auckland

I had chances to trade around 1.55 but was waiting, hoping Bellucci would break. He didn't and he decided to get broken instead. I topped up the lay a little to bring the average down to 1.12 but he couldn't get a BP let alone break Giraldo's serve so have to take the hit on this one.

Wednesday, 12 January 2011

Errani v Peng - Hobart...

Errani seems to be tanking to go to the AO but she will probably make a hard job of it being WTA and all.

I put a quick lay of just £10 liability on Peng @ 1.05 and was looking for a nice green. Then I saw how much had been matched, not much, so just traded out at 1.08 for a little green instead of leaving money in a match with out much money in.

I managed to get a lay of Giraldo @ 1.26 a set up, although it took a while to get matched on that one, it kept just sitting at the front of the queue before drifting to 1.4 - 1.5.
I am waiting to green out of that now although I may not wait to see if Bellucci takes the second set and green up with just 30 ticks ish, I'll see how it goes as I am watching now (on a slow stream with sound quite a bit behind the pics).

Ferrer v Kohlschreiber - Auckland...

Just this match before I head to work tonight and I went for the back of Ferrer @ 1.59. Kohli has dropped a set in both his matches so far but has been hitting some decent shots so it must be just a lack of concentration. Kohli doesn't have a good record on hard against the top ten, even the top 25 and he did get 15-40 on Ferrer's serve but failed to take it.

Ferrer broke after having numerous chances that Kohli saved and it was really only a matter of time before he broke. All green before work and may catch a bit of Giraldo/Bellucci in the morning depending on rain delays etc. That match has three sets written all over it so should have a good chance for a trade.

Haase v Isner - Auckland...

What a fuck up I made here. I rushed a lay on Haase when I saw he had won the first set @ around 1.35, then looked at the stats (big mistake waiting there...) and saw Haase was averaging a bp on every one of Isner's service games whilst not letting Isner having one himself in the whole match.

I then swapped to Haase and Isner went and won the tie break to put me up shit creek. I then saw Haase was @ 2.12 and Haas 2-1 was at 2.28 so thought as it's very unlikely that one will retire I will take the Haase 2-1 and lay off right away on Haase @ 2.12.

After I had done this it started messing up my calculations trying to figure out what odds I needed to go all green with now I had open bets in two markets. I was wishing I never got involved (very tired after long night shift!) so put a lay of Haase 2-1 to get that green (at 2.02), it was matched. Then all I needed was Isner to hit 1.38 and I could get out with minimal green.

He did, and I did. Thank god. I will only be doing match odds from now on and always check the match stats before getting involved in play. It didn't help that the scoreboard froze before the tie break in the second set either.

Oh well, lesson learnt, green on both markets and off to bed now. I won't be getting involved with Clijsters (Aza has BP in first game atm) so I will see what I can find tonight before work again.

Tuesday, 11 January 2011

Hanescu v Almagro - Auckland...

Just a quick trade before going to work tonight. Almagro was 1.15 a set up and that was too short in my opinion. I laid him and was hoping for a quick break or 0-30 to green out.

Hanescu had 0-30 but when it went to 15-30 I thought Hanescu would mess it up again like he did at the end of the first set when he let Almagro back in to win the game from 15-40. I removed my liability at 15-30 but he did go on to break so got a decent enough green on both players considering I only used £15 starting stake as it's very close to having to leave for work and didn't want normal stake caught up in a position I couldn't exit.

Clement v Malisse - Auckland...

I got back from work to find Sydney and Hobart suspended due to rain. Not what I wanted to find as I miss enough matches this week due to work as it is.

I saw Malisse and Clement were in the second set, Malisse won the first 6-4 but Clement was leading in the second 4-1. Clement was a little higher than SP (I think) and I thought he was a value back for a few reasons. He made the final here last year losing to Isner so does well here and would be motivated.

Malisse had also just flown from Chennai after playing all the way to the final including 2 three setters in the SF and Final. Then the flight to a different time zone, playing on a different surface as well and I thought it must catch up with him.

I backed Clement at 4-1 (maybe 4-2, not 100%) and he won the set. He was already around 1.6 after winning the set but I thought he would get further ahead due to the above reasons. He held serve in the third set and then broke Malisse to take a 2-0 lead.

He hit 1.15 which was good enough for me to green and it was perfect timing really as Malisse broke back immediately. I do like it when it goes your way like this!

Monday, 10 January 2011

Russell v Bellucci - Auckland...

This screen shot doesn't tell the final story of this match. I started by laying Bellucci at 1.44 as he had only won 3 of his last 18 matches on hard court in straight sets and Russell had also qualified here so had the extra practice on the surface and would probably be a bit sharper.

Bellucci started well, breaking him in the first set and before winning it and then getting an early break in the second set too. I topped up the lay at the end of the first set at around 1.09 which reduced the average odds to 1.31. When Bellucci broke in the second set he dropped to 1.02 and I was about to let it run when I went to work but decided to put a trade in at 1.4 just in case Russell pulled the set back.

He did and even got a break in the third set so it was matched and I actually finished with a profit of £6.27 on that match.

Hanescu v Anderson - Auckland...

Anderson has been playing well recently, had a good run last week and is enjoying his tennis. Hanescu CAN play well but has not beaten anyone in the ranked higher than #75 in the last year and hasn't played much this year. I started backing Anderson and he duly broke on Hanescu's first service game so got a nice early green before I head off to work.

End of Day 10th Jan...

A good day that I am happy with, especially as I am not around for most of the matches due to work. There are two matches starting at 10pm tonight so I can hopefully get something on there should research show they are worth getting involved in (and that they actually start at that time, unlike Groth).

Also, a few matches in the morning could be an option depending what time I get back from work again. From next Wednesday I am off so should be able to get involved in a lot more matches at the AO as I don't go back until after the Slam.

Bartoli v Safina - Hobart...

Bartoli was a back against Safina. Safina has not played for a long time, has lost lots of her last matches on hard and trails the h2h 2-0, both on hard court too although they were back in 2007.

I even topped up a little at 3-0 as it looked like Safina was not going to get anywhere. Bartoli was hitting winners, moving well, serving well and with Safina being so rusty only a major choke from Bartoli (which isn't unheard of) could get Safina back in this.

Berlocq v Kohlschreiber - Auckland

Kohl was 1.09 ish I believe pre match and he burned me so many times last year and in the past that it had to be a lay. He lost the first set and didn't seem to be able to serve to save his life!

I greened out in the second set when he broke as he was starting to look a bit more consistent than Berlocq and sure enough he won the set and Berlocq was nowhere in the final set, losing 6-1.

I also had a losing trade on Kleybanova but forgot to take a screen shot as I was making my breakfast. I thought it was worth laying her in the final set against Schiavone as she isn't in great form but she won convincingly. It as around a £13 loss and will be up in the final screen shot of the days total.

Also backed Bartoli who is leading 5-0 in the first set against Safina at the moment.

Larsson v Groth - Hobart

A minuscule profit made here but all pre match. It had this down to start at 22:30 on Betfair's Live Scores page so because I leave for work at 23:00 I wanted to get a little trade in if I could.

I started with a lay of Groth but when it didn't go in-play I refreshed the live scores page and found it to be starting at midnight. Quick exit trade and luckily she had drifted a tick or two so didn't make a loss.

Lucky really as it was a bad shout to lay her as she won 6-1 6-3 so would have been a bigger loss.