Wednesday, 31 March 2010

A little change to really boost profits...

Yesterday the system threw up picks for three of the four matches that were on. All three were winners but i've now decided to make a slight change that should really boost profits even more.

There was a massive urge to be greedy and up stakes, it's hard just sitting here doing these small bets but I know it's for the best in the long run and it's the safest way. Instead of upping the stakes I spent a few hours trawling back through the history of this method once again.

I came up with a way that I can set a target of 1% for some sequences and stick with 0.5% for the rest of them. This should see a big boost for the profits and past history of results shows that this should still be no trouble for the bank.

Now it's just the hard part waiting for Sunday when there should be a decent amount of matches on, as a few a day at the moment are not enough to keep me happy!

Nadal was a nice winner for the tipping comp so that keeps me in the running but with the WTA I was chasing a little after an average week so went for Woz to beat Henin but it wasn't to be. Just the ATP to get some decent points this week I hope.

Tuesday, 30 March 2010

I was hoping for more than this...

With the stake rise (by an almighty 10p) I was hoping for a nice profit to get the ball rolling but it wasn't to be. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with £4 profit as it's better than losing money so maybe today the better profit will come although matches are starting to be less and less as we head towards the end of the tournament.

Almugro done me a nice job in the tipping comp but a few chasers hit jackpot with Berdych beating Fed so may be knocked down a space or two, I haven't looked at it close enough yet. Wickmayer got turned over by Bartoli and looking back she was probably the better choice, not just because she won. Similar aggressive games but Bartoli is the better fighter in my opinion and on this slower surface where their power would be weakened she would be able to grind it out better, esp at odds against but at the time I thought Wicky would do it.

Oh well, onto today, a new day, new matches, let's see how it goes. From the early looks only 1 or 2 bets today but perhaps the chance to end another sequence, I'll have a look later today after I've been to bed!

Monday, 29 March 2010

Time to find out the real potential now...

Well. Now it's time to see the real potential of this "holy grail" after some more profit yesterday pushed us over the £400 mark. Now I will be increasing stakes as we go along, aiming to win 0.5% (ish) of the bank each time.

It has now been only approx 2 weeks, maybe a day or two over and the bank has almost tripled although this has been mainly to the fact that targeting £2 wins with £150 in the bank is more than 0.5% so now we will see how this will really perform.

I had two wins again in the tipping comps too. This really must be a lucky week for me! I may end up with some decent points at the end of this week.

Start Bank: £150
New Bank: £409.03
Profit/Loss: +£259.03

Sunday, 28 March 2010

Almost There....

A nice bit of profit yesterday and hopefully after today I can look at raising the stakes a little if we get over £400.

I had Wozniacki in the WTA tipping comp as there was so much ramping about her being ill that she was probably going to come out and win so thought I would go against the majority here. There is so much ramping crap posted about each match it's unbelievable, you just have to ignore it 95% of the time.

Almagro also won for my ATP tipping comp pick and Ferrero was a nice price to beat Isner, I saw some people had backed him to take Isner out on the slower surface which he just can't really seem to get going on as his serve is much weaker on it.

Onto today then, fingers crossed we get over the £400 barrier so the stakes can go up and although this has nearly tripled the bank in two weeks, the growth shouldn't be as quick when betting to win 0.5% of the bank.

I need to come to a decision about what level of risk I am willing to put up should a losing sequence hit a few matches. I was thinking of as soon as it hits 10% liability for a loss recovery bet I would then break that down and recover over more sequences.

20% could be a little high although I don't think it would reach it that many times as sequences seem to finish before that. I'll have a think about it and decide when the time comes.

I'm Now Edging Towards The Stake Increase...

Some more profit yesterday and we are now edging closer to the £400 mark which is where stakes will start to increase and hopefully this will get a bit more interesting. It was £13.30 for Saturday with some more sequences to hopefully end soon, pushing the bank higher.

Murray lost to Fish in straight sets and he really does look lost out on court at the moment. It's clearly a mental problem since his second Slam final schooling and he needs to get his head right soon.

Simon is also having problems and his knee gave him trouble again although he is always a bit of a dodgy fucker to support as you never know when he will show up with a huge lack of effort. He managed to beat Ljubicic with one leg but was awful yesterday and lacked the fight to win. Perhaps he knows in his head that his knees are going to keep going wrong? who knows, we will see in the coming weeks/months I supppose if he wants to keep challenging for the top ten spot or not.

Plenty more bets today, fingers crossed we get some more profit to keep lifting the bank.

Start Bank: £150
New Bank: £358.75
Profit/Loss: +£208.75

Saturday, 27 March 2010

Lot's Of Losing Bets Yesterday...

There were plenty of losing bets yesterday but despite this it still turned a profit of a massive 66p. This should mean in the coming days the loss recovery should turn a decent profit unless a full sequence loses and I have to break the loss down over time to get back.

Even when there are lots of losses like yesterday, and this is the first time there has been this many from what I recall, they look like they can be covered by the wins. If there is a later bet in a sequence that is losing then that will be larger of course so a loss will come at some point but the bank is still in tact despite the "over staking" of £2 bets.

We have tv pics later today so finally we can actually watch some tennis. How quality it will be is a mystery with Djoker losing to Olly Rochus?!?!?!?! yesterday there will probably be some more shocks along the way.

Friday, 26 March 2010

A Solid Day in Miami...

Like the headline says it was a solid day. A sequence being completed for higher stakes after an earlier loss but the markets entered today were good to the new sequences and most of them finished first time out.

This is where the main opportunity for me lies as so many of them are winning bets from the research that i've done that increasing stakes a few times seems to work on paper, we will see.

I am still placing bets to win £2 and the balance is now £348.44. Bets will increase to win 0.5% when the balance is £400 and over. So far it has pulled in profit of £198.44 in around two weeks with £2 bets.

Only today to go before we can actually watch some tennis on the tv and it's a shame that we have missed so many matches so far. Was Lisicki injured badly? Did Pennetta tank the last set or just have a bad day? Most seem to think that she tanked but Murray was trying against Soderling at IW but it just wasnt his day and he got his arse kicked.

At least Dulko and Ana are still in for a bit of eye candy in the next round although A.Rad should tear Ana apart and ruin the little confidence she may have found by winning two matches in a row for the first time in a while.

On to today anyway, looking at a scoreboard later for fun and probably have my blood pressure rise as the WTA break fest's continue!

Start Bank: £150 (IW)
Current Bank: £348.44
Profit/Loss: +198.44

Thursday, 25 March 2010

The Last Week.....

Here is a screenshot for the last 7 days. It was running a bit longer than this, building up from £150 to the current £323.68 but i wont add all 5 pages of results as they are very similar to this.

I see Lisicki has already retired against Shvedova. She is not having a great year and should rest completely before coming back as her form is not great and she is not doing herself any favours. She had great potential last year and needs to do whatever it takes to get this back, even if it means missing a bit longer.

This is the start of a possibly exciting journey

Right, here we go then. Basically to start this off I will say how this came about. I am a regular betting on tennis, usually looking for value and not trying to find "systems".

I was researching the days tennis the other week when I noticed something. Something that stood out to me and made me think..... hmmmmm.....

A bit more research, I hope you appreciate I cannot go into too much detail or it will give it away, and I thought I had really stumbled upon something. Surely there is no "Holy Grail" but this looks possible.

Even more research over approx 2000 matches and the bet I am making rarely happens 4 times in a row. I can lay this, increase upon losses and hopefully make some decent money.

Increasing to chase losses does not work but after I think 3 losing bets I can break a loss down and spread it out over time to make back (say possibly the next 3 or 4 bets in the set).

So I set aside £150 to try this with. I wanted to lay to win 0.5% of my bank so that stakes didn't get to high and put a large amount of my bank at risk but even with just £150 I started laying to win £2 instead of 75p as it was easier. By the end of Indian Wells my bank had risen to £266.

Now after just two days of Miami it has risen to £323.68, still laying to win £2. This will rise after the bank goes above £400, where I will then be laying to win approx 0.5%.

The knockers are welcome, the discussions are welcome, all are welcome. I know I like following others when trying a challenge (esp 70K's blog) to see how they get on so thought I would start this blog to keep a record of how it goes and if some people develop an interest along the way then great.