I've started looking at who breaks first or gets broken first in matches and seeing if a quick trade can be made. Querrey as a fave on hardcourt in the last year is 14-3. He has broken first in 13 of those games, losing on tb in the other so he can be reliable most of the time. He tends to break early in the match, often at 1-1 or 2-1 and is in form right now.
Winning in LA was followed up by a SF in Washington where he lost to Dolgopolov but looking at the stats he just had more break points and just couldn't take them, losing 6-4 6-4 but converting zero of 5 bp's. Since then he has lost to Joker and Murray which is no surprise. Lopez however is 4-7 as underdog on hard in the last year. He has broken first on 5 occasions although this includes set wins via a tb in these stats.
This also mostly includes a good run in Shanghai nearly a year ago. He is only 5-6 on hard this year and has played only 2 matches on it since Miami and IW where he lost in the first round in both. After losing to Fish in straight sets he did beat Young but I think we all know about Young right now and Lopez served 4 double faults and gave up a massive 9 break points against Young but Young just couldn't take them.
This match I am backing big Sam and will hopefully green after he wins the first set. If Lopez breaks I will red out and will also red if Lopez takes a tb. Good luck with your bets!
It's only a little but it all counts towards building it up again.