Wednesday, 22 August 2012

Petkovic v Cibulkova

Petkovic is not often a underdog but after her time out through injury she is here against Cibulkova. Cibulkova is 14-12 as fave on hard in the last year so at 1.54 should be worth a lay anyway but let's have a little deeper look.

In those 26 matches she has broken first in 13 and got broken first in 12 (one match was early retirement so void) so again this points to going either way.

Cibulkova has gone on to win the first set 16 times in those matches so she does get it together more often than not to win the set.

Petkovic had a three setter against Babos and although she wasn't sharp or fully fit she ground out a three set win and it would have been a good workout.

Cibulkova has not been great recently, after winning in Carlsbad she has had first and second round defeats to Pironkova, Lepchenko and retired against Hlavackova. She won her last outing against an out of form AMG but stats and price mean she is a lay here for me today.

Starting with a lay and see how the match unfolds before greening/redding out.

I can't see her winning this in an easy two sets.

EDIT: Whoops, missed the start and saw that Cib broke first game. Got in with a lay on Cib's serve 30-40 @ 1.44.

Redded out at 4-1. Seems although she is getting her serves in she is struggling to win many points so this match was maybe a bit too soon in her comeback.

Ok after I red out she finds her shots, Cib has already given up 5 break points so will surely give up more so another lay at the lower price that the original lay was @ 1.37.

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