Li v Robson

So I went ahead with the lay of Li like I mentioned and was lucky enough to see Robson break first game. I cleared my liability then and even put a bit of green on Li @ 1.46 ish shortly after. I left it like that for a while but Li was making so many errors and wasn't winning service games comfortably at all.

After Robson took the first set I backed her as I thought she would surely trade odds on the way she was playing. She broke again and I layed some off @ 1.64 to leave about £4 on Li and £21 on Robson.

I would have happily taken that, even if Li came back to win, a few quid is a few quid and for an original outlay of £9 I couldn't complain with almost 50% ROI.

When Robson went a double break up and was serving for the match I layed off some more @ 1.07 just to give a bigger green on Li should Robson choke it and get broken but fair play to her she held her nerve and served it out.

I didn't get involved in Bartoli or Stosur, I see they won in straight sets but think Stosur was broken early on to then pull it back?

I was having too much fun watching this match to concentrate on another one so happy all round. My cheese toastie was delightful too, thanks for asking. :)

Looking ahead to today...

Quick post now as I'm busy trying to keep up with everyone Spurs are chasing to sign this afternoon and I think a cheese sandwich is needed as well.

One lay of Konta yesterday, there was no way she could keep up the stats from the first set where she won about 95% of her service points, she was absolutely flying.

She lost the second set easily and gave me a green and the last set was up and down before she finally got pegged back and lost.

I don't like getting involved too often in the final set as it can quickly go against you and not give you a chance to red out.

The three matches starting now with Bartoli, Stosur and Li will be watched at first. Either could fall behind but they could easily win 1 & 2 so I will wait and see if anyone falls behind. If they do and they are not playing that bad then I'll jump in with a back.

Actually, a little lay of Na Li I think, she is a little bit short although Robson could have big win syndrome and not turn up today after beating Clijsters.

So...I chased again

As the title says, I couldn't resist it again. Massive massive mistake but blagged my way out of it again.

Started by laying A. Rad against the little monkey man Suarez Navarro. Navarro playing awesome until I back him. Then A.Rad finds her feet and storms the rest of the way so I kept laying A.Rad tiny bit by tiny bit in the hope it would turn around but it didn't.

Ended up losing a load then getting on Vinci who almost made me cry but managed to break Shvedova when she was serving for the match. I was lucky once again, hopefully I don't carry on doing this as it will all be over for this blog! ha ha

At least I hope I am teaching a few of you a lesson about chasing and how bad it can be! I can't keep dodging bullets forever can I?

And the total for the night. ( I def need a break now, think I'll get on the ps3 and smash a bit of battlefield instead of trading again!)

Pironkova vs Morita

Pironkova is usually reliable as a solid favourite so when she was broken I backed her above evens against the out of form Morita.

Pironkova pulled it back and took the first set where I layed her to get a larger green on Morita. Morita has won 29 matches as an underdog and 5 of those were from a set down so coupled with the fact Pironkova has in the past (but not so much now) choked a lead I thought a little lay again at low odds is worth the risk.

Pironkova didn't choke it this time, Morita was just making too many errors so a tiny profit but I wanted to keep green on both players throughout the match if I could, which I did so I am happy with it.

As I type I also layed Makarova @ 1.19 so this has started going my way. We shall see what it brings!

Good luck with your bets and trading tonight people!

Voskoboeva/Hlavackova

Hlavackova was very short considering her SP of just under evens to be as low as 1.12 a set up so I layed her and greened out a bit too soon. I cleared the liability and then put a bit of profit on when she went a bit higher.

I could have waited as she drifted above evens but you can never be too sure and what with me not doing any trading for a long time I just wanted to get some green and get out whilst I get used to it again and find out about how the players are doing now.

So many things change in a year and a half, Errani is decent now, Barthel has come from nowhere as has Kerber, Soderling and Petkovic are long term injured although Petkovic just making her comeback now. Tipsarevic is now top ten and that was a big shock to see that last month!

Cibulkova/Jovanovski

I started laying Cibulkova as she often goes up and down in the first set. When it was getting a bit close towards the end of the set I greened out with pence on each player as wasn't sure which was it was going to go.

When she won the first set I layed her again but then she broke after too many errors from Jovanovski so I redded out then instead of risking the whole stake.

Big big mistake.... Chasing!

So then, not been back at it long and perhaps I had a lucky run as tonight I made the criminal error of chasing. And it nearly all went wrong.

Got back from football, what a game, 2-0 up, 2-2, 3-2 up, we give away a penalty 3 mins from the end that they equalise from then under the floodlights we score a back heeled winner (same guy who gave away the penalty two mins earlier!) with about 45 seconds left on the clock!

I got injured which wasn't good and then got back home to start backing Kim who was a set down. It went wrong from there as I hadn't seen any of the match, I hadn't seen Kim play at all since I started again and even carried on laying Robson for minimal stakes when she reached low odds in the hope Kim would reach low odds herself. Shouldn't have got involved without any research or watching any of the match.

Biggest loss so far but then the worst thing you can do, lump on to get it back. I have no idea why I done it really and probably only because I have not long been back trading and didn't want to ruin the good start I've had.

Well I nearly ruined the whole bank by lumping on Bartoli of all people and we all know how hard she made her win come through. 

I hope I have learnt, I never used to chase so hopefully it was a one off and won't happen again. Time will tell I suppose.

End of the day it's a nice profit earned by the worst possible route. Don't do it people.

Early Match Done...

Just the one early match traded today and it was an easy one thank god. Petrova is reliable as a high priced favourite (1.5+) despite her being on the back end of her career.

Halep was in awful form and a win over Benesova who has been just as bad doesn't mean she will turn around and beat Petrova in a GS.

I backed Petrova from the off as I thought she should have been nearer1.45-1.5 and she is tearing her apart. I covered the liability but left all the green on Nadia.

I hope to be back in time for Bartoli/Oprandi and may get involved. Bit of research to do first.

Good luck with all your betting and trading tonight, anyone predicting a big surprise?

Not much time today...

Very little time today so couple of screenshots I took and a that will pretty much be it. I have a football match tonight so may get an early trade in but other than that won't be around until maybe 10pm so will miss most matches.

Woz was clearly in trouble so in the second set I backed Begu and then just clearly liability on Woz as I couldn't see her pulling this back but wanted to be safe just in case.

She shouldn't have carried on last week and surely she regrets it now as she loses 900pts I think from a SF last year and drops out of the top 10.

The back of Malek I mentioned went against me as Akgul won the first set but because Malek had had over twice the amount of break points I let it run, also the spread on market was very big and liquidity quite low.

Malek won the second set but I waited until she had broken early in the third to green out when liquidity was a bit better with the lower odds.

Update

A loss on Govortsova as I layed her thinking Paszek could pull it back a little. She couldn't so I had to take a big hit on that match, a loss of £17.00 so no screenshot of the individual match but a p/l screenshot will be put up tomorrow.

Sloane Stephens is on the verge of beating Schiavone as I type this, Schiavone not only looking like a horse but also putting most of her serves in the net and generally being like a man in every department apart from the tennis playing skills department.

Sloane is in some good form and with the home crowd I expect her to close this out but a green was made on both players not long ago.

The Szavay match was crazy, market wise. Szavay lost three matches in a row, retiring in two before missing almost a year through injury. Since her come back she has played three matches and lost all three in straight sets, with all three matches coming on a different surface.

If someone can then tell me how she can go a break up so early in the game and people want to back her @ 1.47 to win? That was a crazy price and I just had to lay it.

Surprise surprise she was broken back and lost the first set, with Arn who is old enough to be some of the other girls on the tours Nan went as low as 1.25.

That was also worth laying for a green on both.

In up coming matches I was going to have a back of Kiri but have missed the start and she has broken already. If she is broken back then I may get involved but won't be keeping a close eye on matches now.

I have also put a back in on Malek. Much better form than I'm a man-muradova and I think will surely trade a fair bit lower if not win that match.

I hope you all have been winning plenty tonight and nobody lost on the horse faced man look a like who I now see lost in straight sets so like  I thought Stephens closed it out.

Good luck with the rest of your bets guys, speak to you soon!

Balance Boost...

Ok so my girlfriend wanted to get in on my tennis trading so she decided to invest £200 and trusts me not to lose it so I get to up my stakes a fair bit now with the jump in the balance.

I have the rest of the week off work so plenty of time to get some trading done should opportunities arise.

I started by laying Cibulkova who has a very average record this year when you take away her clay win/loss difference and Larsson often starts brightly.

Took a quick green when she was broken. I then backed Shvedova against her doubles partner King. She looks to be hitting the ball so much better, I did clear my liability and then backed her again when she drifted another ten ticks before putting a level green on both players.

I can see Shvedova winning this without being troubled but you never know in WTA so it would be a shame to lose a nice green and at 1.06 it doesn't take much liability to have a green on King too.

Earlier Vinci was always going to beat U.Rad in my opinion. Radwanska very mentally weak and Vinci has been on fire recently, winning an outdoor hard title to complete a title on every surface.

She was broken early on (Vinci) so seeing as I missed the start it just gave me better odds to get involved with.

I am trying not to get involved after getting a green on both players as so many times in the past I have reduced the green then made mistakes trying to get it back and even ended up losing. I hope those mistakes are in the past now and I am happy to get green on both and then move on.

I am even happier to red out now more than I used to and I often have an opinion of how the match will go and if doesn't go my way then I get out.

Sharapova won easily last night and once again I'll put her out as my shout to reach the final, maybe win. I'll have to update should she lose and after I have seen more matches I will have a better idea of who is in form.

After 18 months with no tennis it's taking a little while to get back in the groove but I feel I'm starting to find my feet again now.

A small loss yesterday but nothing to worry about. I backed Cirstea  at the restart from the rain delay and she broke Lisicki instantly so a quick green was grabbed and I moved on.

Halep and Benesova are both in awful form but when Benesova took the first break I thought that may have been enough for her to gain the confidence to take the first set whilst Halep could have been thinking "shit, here we go again".

Mental strength is so important in tennis and so many WTA players seem to lack it. Benesova was serving for the set at 5-4 and I could have (and should have) gone green then. Her mental strength was non existent and her brain injury meant she was broken to love so I redded out and moved on.

Safarova is another one who is a complete head case and after a shaky few points on serve I though Oudin, with the crowd behind her could take a break or at least take momentum of the match so a quick lay of Lucie @ 1.08 and I started watching and waiting. She went out to 1.1 but the amount of errors coming from each girls rackets was ridiculous.

I redded out there when Lucie took the first set.

Right now I have a lay of Voskoboeva against Rus, Rus is in better form and Voskoboeva has been awful recently and has a bad record against lefties so I layed her in the hope she cannot carry on this well in the match, I mean for fucks sake Vosko has won 100% of her first serve points and if that carrys on then I'll take the hit because I can't see it happen.

I hope for a melt down there but also keeping an eye on Peng/Vesnina and Hlavackova/Zakopalova right now too, waiting for an opportunity.

Kirilenko v Kvitova

Had a quick successful trade on this match the other night. Got in late but looked at the stats and watched a game or two and then decided that I thought Kiri could take a break and maybe the second set so put in a lay of Kvitova @ 1.46.

She did break, and right away so I wanted a quick in and out green which in hindsight was the best thing to do as Kvitova came back to win in straight sets.

It seems the rain is holding off play for the US Open matches bar the odd one with Murray and Blake playing but I don't really tend to get involved with ATP too often now.

I'll keep an eye out to see if it clears but am off to work in a few hours so may just have to leave it until tomorrow night as I have the rest of the week off after tonight! :)

Good luck if you get involved with the current matches, I haven't had a bet on outright but I think Sharapova could go very far here this year. I haven't watched enough tennis recently to make a call on an outsider making a surprise run so I will leave it at that for now.

Tonights Bets...

I put in a lay of Woz at 1.62 after the first two games as you could see she couldn't move properly, perhaps her injury was real after all. That was good in the end as she retired after losing the first set.

I'm putting a back of Kvitova in as Errani doesn't really beat top class players on hard court and this quite fast here, or has been in recent years anyway. I don't think Kvitova is the tanking type and Errani is 2-25 in the last two and half years when her odds are over 3.00.

Both those wins came against Zheng so I think Kvitova is good for the win here and is a higher price than her last two wins against her.

Update...

I had the profit from the Woz match and will try and get involved in Woz/Kiri that is about to start. I had to go to work so placed two small back bets to let them run on both Kvitova who is a class above Safarova and Jankovic who also needed to win to make sure she doesn't miss being seeded for the US Open.

The final against Vinci will surely be a good game, Vinci likes destroying Serbs after handing out a double bagel to Jovanovski and I will surely watch that.

Time to do a little research now anyway as Kiri/Woz is due to start very shortly!

Good luck with your bets/trading!

Well Well Well....Woz....

Well if you watched that then some people will be seething. Woz wins first set then when around 1.10 hurts her knee. Everyone thinks she will retire so she drifts out to above evens before coming back on and winning the second set 6-1.

I had a lay on Woz at 1.21 so got a nice little green when the "injury" drift came up. She was clearly not injured but like someone said on the betfair forum at least she grimaces now to make it look more realistic!

Kirilenko is very reliable as a favourite, 22-4 this year and 12-0 on hard. She didn't play when Barthel withdrew so will be fresh for Govortsova who has come through qualifying with two three setters so will surely be not as fresh.

Govortsova is 4-12 as underdog and 1-2 on hard this year with her win coming when A.Rad retired last time out.

Haven't decided yet to either back Kirilenko from the off or wait and see a bit of the match and try and get a higher price.

Kiri should dispatch her though.

Incy Wincy Bit of Profit

Tiny bit of profit yesterday after messing up on the Cibulkova match. I knew I was a bit rusty when I was doing it and I think I need to do a bit of research to get back on top of players form etc.

Petkovic v Cibulkova

Petkovic is not often a underdog but after her time out through injury she is here against Cibulkova. Cibulkova is 14-12 as fave on hard in the last year so at 1.54 should be worth a lay anyway but let's have a little deeper look.

In those 26 matches she has broken first in 13 and got broken first in 12 (one match was early retirement so void) so again this points to going either way.

Cibulkova has gone on to win the first set 16 times in those matches so she does get it together more often than not to win the set.

Petkovic had a three setter against Babos and although she wasn't sharp or fully fit she ground out a three set win and it would have been a good workout.

Cibulkova has not been great recently, after winning in Carlsbad she has had first and second round defeats to Pironkova, Lepchenko and retired against Hlavackova. She won her last outing against an out of form AMG but stats and price mean she is a lay here for me today.

Starting with a lay and see how the match unfolds before greening/redding out.

I can't see her winning this in an easy two sets.

EDIT: Whoops, missed the start and saw that Cib broke first game. Got in with a lay on Cib's serve 30-40 @ 1.44.

Redded out at 4-1. Seems although she is getting her serves in she is struggling to win many points so this match was maybe a bit too soon in her comeback.

Ok after I red out she finds her shots, Cib has already given up 5 break points so will surely give up more so another lay at the lower price that the original lay was @ 1.37.

Querrey V Lopez

Ok, I don't have time to do a write up for every match but a few I will try and do. Now I haven't actually watched tennis for about 18 months so not clued up to the max on form and will be using the stats etc to base this on but it's only tiny stakes so no major worries with that.

I've started looking at who breaks first or gets broken first in matches and seeing if a quick trade can be made. Querrey as a fave on hardcourt in the last year is 14-3. He has broken first in 13 of those games, losing on tb in the other so he can be reliable most of the time. He tends to break early in the match, often at 1-1 or 2-1 and is in form right now.

Winning in LA was followed up by a SF in Washington where he lost to Dolgopolov but looking at the stats he just had more break points and just couldn't take them, losing 6-4 6-4 but converting zero of 5 bp's. Since then he has lost to Joker and Murray which is no surprise. Lopez however is 4-7 as underdog on hard in the last year. He has broken first on 5 occasions although this includes set wins via a tb in these stats.

This also mostly includes a good run in Shanghai nearly a year ago. He is only 5-6 on hard this year and has played only 2 matches on it since Miami and IW where he lost in the first round in both. After losing to Fish in straight sets he did beat Young but I think we all know about Young right now and Lopez served 4 double faults and gave up a massive 9 break points against Young but Young just couldn't take them.

 This match I am backing big Sam and will hopefully green after he wins the first set. If Lopez breaks I will red out and will also red if Lopez takes a tb. Good luck with your bets!

Result!

It's only a little but it all counts towards building it up again.

I AM BACK!!!!

Hey there, It's been a long time since I have dabbled in the tennis but after watching a few matches recently I have decided to have a little go again. Just normal trading, no set system although I do have a specific entry point that I will try and keep too. Just put £70 in to start with and see how I go with that. Due to work commitments I won't be trading every match, just matches when I am around and a trade looks worth starting. I'm looking forward to getting back in to it and hopefully making a little cash along the way. I'll post an update every couple of days if I can, more often if I have been busy and talk about the matches I traded if I have time to write a longer post. Few screen shots will be in there, a few news reports, the odd funny post if I find something I like and just try and keep it a light hearted blog that people enjoy popping in to to have a little read every now and again. Speak to you soon, matches are just starting!!!!!