Larsson said that as long as I am backing value then chasing could work which got me thinking about how much value there is in the bets I am making.
The further in to the sequences I head the less chance there is of it losing again (that what ten years of results says anyway) so when I get to 4th bet, if I am backing a favourite @ 1.85 I have a very strong feeling that this will win for me as in the past ten years 4 losses in a row don't happen too often.
Is 1.85 therefore massive value seeing as in the past matches with this criteria have gone my way.
If it's 1.35 is it still value? Can I look at value from the point of view of the criteria I use or does it have to be value considering the opponent?
Personally I think high priced favourites on the 4th bet ARE decent value for sure as they go my way more than they don't from what past results tell me.
Also, because at this point in the sequence the stakes have obviously risen, with the larger stake am I therefore enhancing the return of that value and cancelling out some bad value from earlier losing bets?
=========================================
A massive profit of 77p yesterday although a few matches were postponed until today due to rain so they have been carried over.
Hopefully a dry day will see those matches get played and hopefully result in a profit for the bank again.
Hi Rod. I thought we had a decent discussion yesterday. Amidst all the flak flying around. As to the point of value of "the 4th bet" I am absolutely convinced that you have to see that as an isolated event and cannot attach value from its place en the sequence. Do you keep track of your basic hitrate and ROI on all bets? And does it differ from "the fourth bet". What I'm getting at is that maybe you should only place that fourth bet as it seems to have a high return. I don't know if this makes any sense - but anyway...
ReplyDeleteCheers
Pete
PS I've taken the chatname Ockham in the BF forum which seems to wind some people up.
@Pete, I thought someone would say just do the later bets in the sequence but as you can see from the screen shots there are so many winning bets early on that I would miss out on a lot of profit.
ReplyDeleteJust doing the 4th bet only would mean maybe one or two bets a month, maybe a few more on occasions and it would have no where near the return that it has at the moment.
Fair point. You have the statistics. I still think you should check out if you actually are making a profit from your picks without chasing. Good luck.
ReplyDeletePete
No it wouldn't make a profit just to level stakes. I know that a rule is if it wont make level stakes profit it won't make a profit long term but because I saw the long losing runs were so rare I think it's ok to chase for a few bets.
ReplyDeleteIf they rarely happen in ten years of tennis I can't see them suddenly happening regularly.